Although it is difficult to put a price tag on the speculation and mania portion of BTCs price, as sentiment strengthens in regards to Bitcoins future functionality prospects the price should continue to increase. This bubble is going to break, the environmental waste is awful, and CNBC legitimizing this as investing with ticket symbols must stop. People are looking for something that is undervalued to put their money towards. If that money is a key component to your wealth and retirement plan, you may want to consider something with a little less volatility. Index fund investing is both the simplest and the highest performing way to invest your money. https://www.amazon.com/giftcardscams/b?ie=UTF8&node=15435487011, Ryan Schaap This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. The problem with Bitcoin, (really all of the crypto currencies) is their value is not tied to anything of value. What if anything gives a compelling reason that bitcoin or any one of these other currencies will end up in the group? If you know anyone heavily vested in bitcoin, stay in touch with them. Liquidity is very low, which tends to drive prices up or down quickly, and lead to very high market capitalization despite relatively little money being injected. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. No matter how attractive a populous finds them to be, cryptocurrencies will remain the territory of criminals, speculators and consumers of novel technologies until they are auditable. There are dozens more data points just like these. Are you sure Amazon pays someone in unusable (to them) gift cards? They probably also didnt like my stated aversion to cyptocurrency and desire to stick with boring real estate. They cant use these gift cards. It's the ultimate win/win because you just set it and forget it. Sir, its $0.33 for that pound of bananas. I wonder why. Come back after a couple of years to this blog and let us see who is vindicated! TO_Ont And verify. I think environmental impact is overstated since the major users arent using coal. Vivek Prasannan The supply of Bitcoin is known perfectly, whereas nobody knows how fast your fingernails grow. With governments coming on board, digital cash will stop money laundering and all these bad things Bitcoin has been associated with. Me personally, Im betting on the buck. Westerners will not see the benefit for sometime as we have no purpose ourselves for bitcoin but once it becomes a single global currency that can be used in every shop of the world then everyone will be holding bitcoin. Right! January 15, 2018, 9:20 am. That said, Im still not so sure. I first thought about shorting it at $1000, and again at $10,000, so obviously I have no particular insight into timing. Maybe you know about Mr. Money Mustache very well But do you know how old and tall is he and what is his net worth in 2023? I remain open to more information on the uses of Blockchain, but Ive never seen a valid fundamental reason for betting on future increases in the prices of these things. I refer you to: https://shitcoin.me/. Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. Yes. Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. Video compression tech. The behavior of bitcoin since the genesis block has been completely different. Pretty weak overall. Also make a calculation of how much electricity, trees and other expenses the Fiat Currencies printed on toilet paper consume as well! No wait, not kinda bonkers, totally effing insane and unlikely to happen in our lifetimes. You have failed to separate the technology from specific implementations. I would recommend everyone to do their own research because many of what MMM says is plain wrong. Staying the Course in War-Time. Ah yes silly me :). Mining is only one arm of this whole thing and CANNOT hijack Bitcoins, and that is also why the Bitcoin community refuses to increase block size randomly like Bitcoin Cash, to give the miners any more importance than they deserve. Glad to see some sense being written to the red necks who seem to inhabit this blog! Problems that dont bother your average North American, but could be very valuable to many people the world over. But coincidentally, after I got my computer engineering degree I ended up specializing in security and encryption technologies for most of my career. ie beauty counter for nerds. Why not somebody elses fingernail clippings? Theres nothing fraudulent about Bitcoin its mass hysteria driving demand. Like every state currency, it derives its worth out of the fact that the state says you can *always* pay your taxes with it But I did put about $600 in Bitcoin over a year ago. There are other points that I cant think of right now. They said they are going to ban it, but there was such public outcry the government just backed off and now says they are still discussing the matter! The Ramsey Show. Stop Ironing Shirts Mark states he has done this study with no references to any data as to how he arrived at such a conclusion. So, all of the normal, previous ways of saving have been destroyed & the banks/corrupt bankers get bailed out, over & over & the regular people are sick of it. Think about how tomorrows generation will use far a more advanced blockchain tech to interact with far more advanced internet and general tech to create things that we cant even conceive of yet, let alone why they would have value. Scott, I think you may have that backwards: You mean that Bond *yields* werent historically low back then like they are now, right? ), bastringue One question though, why not speculate with a small percentage of your net worth ie < 5%. So Im going with no. It is cool. Go educate yourself first. Cryptocurrency could be the proverbial cure for cancer, but if its made illegal or heavily regulated through prudent or reactionary legislation (YMMV) it doesnt really matter, does it? GPU mining is dead. Personally, I am out of Bitcoin because it is no longer useful to me. I would say that I am above it all, but I have to admit, there are days when I get caught up and am tempted to get in the game (if only to short it!). Dont count on there being a greater fool to take this sort of investment off your hands. Transactions are happening instantaneously and at as low a cost as a Satoshi! If you can afford to lose the $500K and want to let it ride, go for it. How much are these companies worth today? I totally agree that Cryptocurrency is not a long term investment strategy, diversifying is absolutely key. Is the theory that eventually there wont be anymore banks? (Its also very hard to make jewelry out of. Im not sure there is suggestion from MMM that cryptocurrencies are fraudulent or indeed even a scam. Some companies are already testing it in main net as well! When someone has a 180 degree different opinion to you, just discredit them eh? That shit is gonna go way way up to 50k! Crypto currency as an ecosphere financially has benefited the tech industry dramatically, and if you invest like Mr Money Mustache advises, that means you probably have a good amount invested into the S&P 500. We cannot have better living conditions for half of humanity on this planet under a corrupt and manipulative central banking system of various countries, that are not even true democracies. Sooner or later, the fundamentals of the underlying business should and will reflect in the stock price. In 5 years, I probably expect people to be cracking jokes on this shortsighted article. There is no opportunity for them here, but I do appreciate your expression of goodwill towards others and humanitarian leanings (misguided though they are in this specific instance.). If you think that irrational bubble valuations in stocks arent possible, then you just havent studied stocks long or hard enough to be investing in them. I agree totally. Your comment is timestamped January 7, 2018. You respond with an implied personal insult. As a result, the benefits of human progress are not reflected in our moneys purchasing power. also remember while the market cap is $230bn at least 20% of coins are lost from the early years. We have never in history had such expanding currency supply backed by NOTHING. Hi Financialindependence.. You are correct about your overall analysis: Bitcoin is indeed silly as a store of value from current prices because the number of insanely secure blockchains can always be increased by 1. I think the far greater chance is your comment will be the joke. Im more inclined to trust contracts that cannot be broken. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. Yes, it is insane to value something highly solely because other people might value it. Or sell half of GBTC. Why Youll Probably Never Run Out Of Money, Which is Safer: Rental Houses or Stock Investments? The very definition of an unsophisticated investor is Being more willing to buy something, the more its price goes up.. You know things arent a good investment when there are Bitcoin ATMs at bars. That is a fairly dumb sock puppet, since he never spoke about them. Further more rants about the skyrocketing cost of housing and how many people cannot afford their mortgages, with further people saying mortgage payments wont matter because those people can just sell for more when the payments become a problem. Trust is important. The root of crypto is decentralization and independence from government that empowers people. You have to start thinking several steps ahead at once, like trying to imagine twitch.com in 1990. You are a dumb man TomTX! Im not sure why the author is so angry at people who speculate. Cancer-Away, CancerBgone, CancEthereum, and any other number of competitors would spring up. Now the ball has reached proportions where it could blow up anytime, and people in this forum are talking about the small change like the bubble and P/E ratio in the stock market. But consider some things that will live up the hype.. like improved immunotherapies for cancer or Crisprs ability to cheaply edit DNA line by line. Think that would fly at the grocery store? Danny Livewire Perhaps us libertarian believers are wrong, and this can be maintained indefinitely. It remains to be seen. The response was amazing and, unfortunately, there were simply to many to include them all. The worlds governments are not going to let everyone start trading money anonymously and evading taxes using Bitcoin. On the other hand, if youre cool with allowing remote-controlled robots to kill 3rd world women and children in your name, then keep using only US Dollars. TomTX, you can take a horse to the Pond but you certainly cannot make it Drink! Fiat currency fluctuates too, but its swings are smaller as a percentage of its total market cap. Bitcoin was the first block chain, and this guy Satoshi whoever he is, has invented something that is as big as what Einstein did in the 20th century with Atomic Physics. I saw a few currencies try out Proof of Stake, like Ark, where the holders of the currency choose who they want to do the mining. Andy Stow Pete and his wife retired at. The need for a cryptocurrency is very real. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. This is not characteristic of a healthy financial system (particularly so many years into a global recovery), but rather a zombie one thats been artificially propped up since the financial crisis. January 3, 2018, 12:48 pm. It doesnt come right back a couple of years later and soar again to a new price 10 times greater than the previous bubbles high, which is what bitcoin has done after each one of its three or four previous bubbles burst. Fair comparison? I agree with your points on why this is not a viable currency, and no I wont buy your nail clippings!!! And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. obsolete. Plus the addiction and how crypto has started to drain people of their savings and life. If history is any indication of the future, we can presume the government will print more USD to make up for lost revenue. But I get that most of these things arent problems that need solving in the first world. I just dont understand the new economy. Hurry! More than triple the speed of Visa/MC. Yet, the banking system has been around for hundreds of years and I dont see it disappearing into the sunset anytime soon. That is what has happened twice this century already, and could very well happen again. Bitcoins arent duplicable, your fingernails could be replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass spectrometry. What usually happens when this occurs? Youre confusing outcome with process. But my preferred broker, Interactive Brokers, doesnt allow shorting Bitcoin futures (the founder of IB seems very anti-bitcoin in general). To be honest this whole article reads like a paid advertisement against crypto. Darn things didnt even pace with inflation. Good comments Jon. In fiat currency the car is valued at $41,940, but 18 days later, the car is valued at $31,850. You guys are sitting in fools paradise if you think anyone would want US dollars in the years to come. Even as these banks show SKY-HIGH PROFITS, they mostly evade their share of tax via loopholes. Speculation is great. offshore tax haves/ black marketsare companies moving to Ireland for tax sheltering & why does Apple have so much money overseas. Ive been experiencing the Bitcoin frenzy from the sidelines, but I recently went all in, buying up 20 physical commemorative Bitcoins on eBay. farmecologist When contracts cannot be broken nobody needs to oversee contracts. But thats just the software side (Blockchain). All of the wealth and jobs being created already by Crypto has changed and benefitted the lives of millions. We will see you on the other side of the crash. However, I go back to my main point Anyone who tells you they know how this experiment ends is already wrong. Being knowledgeable about finance does not mean being knowledgeable about economics. Bitcoin isnt that though. The main reason is Kenya has a mobile money system which allows you to use phone credit to pay for stuff or even just your own money. On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. Im patiently watching on the sideline to see how this is going to pan out. Completely agree, personally I think current crypto currencies are a sham, but as a small pct of someones portfolio (Id say no more than 5%) its not an outrageous investment. In a sense one could swap bitcoin to USD and the article still stands. Mr. Money Mustache (Pete Adeney in real life) is a Colorado family man who retired 11 years ago at age 30 after an unexceptional 10-year engineering career, and now writes occasionally about. https://twitter.com/SunnyStartups/status/946711941250273280/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcointelegraph.com%2Fnews%2Findia-falsely-condemns-bitcoin-as-ponzi-scheme-flawed-logic, A man is not a financial plan Mr. Money Mustache is a thirty-something retiree who now writes about how we can all live a frugal, yet awesome, life of leisure. Evan Drake Max Thunder Crypto is here to stay albeit probably not at insane prices. Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. A lot of stocks never pay dividends though. You could grow more bulbs indefinitely. Do you practice illegal tax evasion as your primary wealth strategy? Your risk is your own, but understand that bitcoin is gambling. Probably the same will happen again. I would say, Probably the same would not happen again. that would be a PE ratio of 1. Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. No. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. However when every Joe on the street becomes an expert in an assetthen its suspect and you dont need to be clairvoyant to know that this will not end well. It all depends on how much personal enjoyment they get compared to the cost to own them. Not going to do this with you.. This is the second highest cyclically-adjusted PE ratio in recorded history: Priced in gold, it is the third largest stock bubble in recorded history: http://pricedingold.com/charts/SP500-1880.pdf. Bitcoin is actually a saviour that provides the world an opportunity to get out of total mess without fighting a WW3! My heart would break if I said goodbye to $200k. Why do you think so? Thats fairly over the top. Monetizing debt and inflating the monetary supply is eroding our purchasing power and wealth. It is happening, slowly but none the less all three of your issues should be gone within 5 years). Your in effect speculating on a winner even if you do believe the technology is the future. If you dont have the Bitcoin in your own (encrypted, hardware, offline) wallet, you dont actually control the Bitcoin. Only 8% of fiat currency is paper currently, the rest is digital, similar to Bitcoin and unlike Bitcoin, it cannot be copied and sold under another brand. Thank you! One of the 3 points MMM stated it needs. Yeah, IF YOU SHOUT LIKE THIS IT MAKES YOUR POINT COMPLETELY VALID. But a collective insanity has sprouted around the new field of cryptocurrencies, causing a totally irrational worldwide gold rush. TomTX, nothing was answered. If I buy and hold a share of S&P500 ETF for the rest of my life, I will earn back the share price in quarterly dividends eventually. January 3, 2018, 12:55 pm. Do I still get the full bag or just a portion of your pinky fingers latest clipping? His rhetoric about trusting the wise elites of the Federal Reserve also irks me. If you want just one reason it is that governments will not allow it. By exchanging dollars or euros for a fee? http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/06/01/andreas-antonopoulos-explains-blockchain-nothing-without-bitcoin/, Mr. Frugal Toque It has reached the point that a big percentage of stories in the financial news and questions in Mr. Money Mustaches email inbox are about whether or not we should all invest in BitCoin. Dan, I am not angry when someone says they dont want to invest in it. It is subject to crazes and manias. Power consumption from bitcoin mining would only amount to a fraction of 1 percent of global demand even in 2020. But yes, you should think about getting out, since you have enough now. Discussion with friend from nVidia is irrelevant to bitcoin mining. Its odd he believes people require a government to establish a system of trust and cooperation. MMM eludes to the crux of the issue surrounding the long term sustainability of the current generation of cryptocurrencies when he discusses the fact they are heavily unregulated and difficult to track for governments (everywhere). One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. Please, Alex Anton is not shouting. Do pay attention, please. Slaves to banks and few elites? If its a bubble, it will be the first bubble where a large portion of investors know it could all be a bubble and where most investors are tired of hearing about tulips. Use the blockchain to store the state of running programs and you can create publicly verifiable and trustworthy (because they require none as they operate publicly and transparently) applications that can interact with money. As long as there are people who insist on spending more than they produce there will be debt and as long as there is debt, there will be national debt. I put my money where my mouth is! This is a known bug in our operating system, and we have designed some parts of our society to protect us against it. To me, the Bitcoin bet is basically a global Paypal that allows anyone in the world to use it. Interesting article, with some great points. So with all that in mind, I wouldnt worry too much about the current Shiller P/E number. January 2, 2018, 6:04 pm. In CPI inflation adjusted terms, 1999 index investors have only very recently earned back their losses. She works as a school monitor and the kids have an area of the forest next to the school to play in. I was thinking that the primary beneficiaries of the current bubble are likely the drug dealers, money launderers, and other criminals that hold bitcoin for actual business transactions. do not feed into this crap that there is no banking infrastructure. Bitcoin is almost as irrational from current prices as are US stocks. 2. Every currency has something behind it. A similar dynamic is at play with stocks: Is $1 of ongoing future earnings worth sacrificing $1 today? This financial libertarian streak is at the core of Bitcoin, and youll hear echoes of that sentiment in all the pro-crypto blogs and podcasts. So a volunteer based system wouldnt be secure enough to be considered immutable for data of high value. Absolutely! Ive been investing steadily over a 20 year period. And that, in a nutshell, is why booms and busts will continue to plague us: human emotion and the desire for more. They could also plateau until earnings catchup with prices. Compared to bitcoin it uses only a fraction of energy. The growing demand for more electricity is the most serious issue with Bitcoin, IMO. One thing that most people seem to miss about why gold was favoured as a form of money (scarcity and shininess) is the fact that it literally lasts. That means an implied 100% cash-on-cash return every year. Your in effect speculating on a winner even if you SHOUT like this mr money mustache bitcoin MAKES point. Are happening instantaneously and at as low a cost as a result, the fundamentals the... Users arent using coal reason that Bitcoin is known perfectly, whereas nobody how... Stop money laundering and all these bad things Bitcoin has been associated with have the bet. Whereas nobody knows how fast your fingernails grow what if anything gives a compelling reason Bitcoin... Start trading money anonymously and evading taxes using Bitcoin main net as well is gon na go way up. 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